The Path Forward
I was on vacation in Virginia a few weeks ago and I met a data engineer who avoids using AI and was dismayed to hear that I use it extremely heavily. His stance was very much around job losses and I’m sensitive to that. I see the big companies laying off large fractions of their workforce[^1], not at all because they need to but just because it helps their bottom line.
AI will change the world, completely, fundamentally, irrevocably. Science fiction has been hypothesizing about what that will look like for decades and I see many paths before us as perfectly probable: it could result in (A) a war-torn hellscape, (B) a deep and horrible class divide with extreme oppression, or (C) a utopia beyond our imagining.
The difference between these options is completely in the hands of the government. In the current landscape, the first or second seems more probable, and I find that deeply saddening. The way things stand right now, I can see a future where China achieves something resembling C and the US something resembling B. The difference is simply that the Chinese government, for all its many many faults, is intent on raising up its country’s standing on the world stage and creating economic success for its people.
As it stands, the path ahead of us looks like it will be painful, at least in the US. We are already seeing mass layoffs in large companies as they choose to use AI workflows to displace workers, especially entry-level. Fresh graduates are maybe feeling the pain the most. Job placement out of college is lower than it has been in years[^2] as companies replace entry-level roles with AI[^3].
But it doesn’t have to be like this! Yes, big companies are downsizing because they can, but AI makes starting a new business easier than it has ever been. Imagine if we had easy low-interest loans for new businesses? I think I remember a presidential candidate campaigning on something like that recently[^4].
P.S. I’m going to call out Microsoft as one of the biggest villains here. They spent a decade buying up a ton of video game companies, then drastically overspent on data center buildout[^5], then laid off a ton of video game staff[^6] to balance their books. Fuck you. Care for your people, don’t destroy their lives. And while I’m calling out megacorps, let me just point out that Apple, like always, hires thoughtfully, and rarely does layoffs[^7].
[^1]: Challenger Report: May Job Cuts Rise 16% from April; Highest May Total Since 2020
[^2]: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
[^3]: Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
[^4]: Harris $50,000 small business startup tax deduction ahead of Trump debate
[^5]: Microsoft cancels up to 2GW of data center projects, says TD Cowen
[^6]: Microsoft’s largest layoff in years hits Xbox gaming, sales and other divisions